MTFB Oscar Update: Oscar Winners Predictions: Screenplays and More / BAFTA and TFF #51 / Writers' Guild and TFF #51

 MTFB OSCAR WINNERS PREDICTIONS: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

We're under two weeks to Oscar night.  Today I am updating predictions for both screenplay categories as well as International , Animated and Documentary features.  These categories were first predicted two weeks back on Feb. 3rd.  As always, TFF films are Bold.  A film's previous ranking is indicated to the right in parentheses.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

2) A Complete Unknown (2)

5) Sing Sing (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

2) The Substance (3)

4) The Brutalist (2)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) I'm Still Here (1)

4) Flow  (4)

5) The Girl with the Needle (5)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) The Wild Robot (1)

2) Flow (2)

3) Inside Out 2 (3)

5) Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (4)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

2) Porcelain War (4)

3) Black Box Diaries (3)

4) Sugarcane (2)

5) Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat (5)

Comments:  Despite the backlash, Emilia Perez still looks like it has a real shot at the International Feature Oscar.  I still have it behind I'm Still Here but it feels close.  Additionally, Porcelain War has surged in the Documentary category.  The biggest lock from these categories seems to be Conclave in Adapted Screenplay.

Should these predictions prove out, TFF #51 films would win three of the five categories.

BAFTA AND TFF #51

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts announced their winners on Sunday.  each with Conclave leading the way with four wins including Best Film. Four TFF #51 films landed a least two BAFTAs including Conclave with four wins including Best Film.

Here's the rundown of  TFF #51 films' BAFTA wins:

Conclave: Best Film, Best British Film, Adapted Screenplay and Editing.  

Anora: Best Actress (Madison) and Casting.

Emilia Perez: Best Film Not in the English Language and Best Supporting Actress (Saldana).

A Real Pain: Best Supporting Actor (Culkin) and Original Screenplay.

Among non-TFF films The Brutalist had four wins as well for Best Direction, Actor (Brody), Cinematography and Score.

The Conclave win for Best Film gives it a little life for Oscar night.  Wins for Saldana and Culkin cement their status for Supporting Oscars and all of the hubbub regarding Emilia Perez didn't seem to slow it down in London.

TFF #51 films were nominated for a total of  45 awards.

WRITERS' GUILD AND TFF #51

Two TFF #51 films picked up Writers' Guild of America awards on Saturday night.  Sean Baker won for Anora as Best Original Screenplay while RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes shared the trophy for Nickel Boys as Best Adapted Screenplay.

These results are likely indicative of an Anora Oscar win in two weeks.  The Nickel Boys win is likely less predictive as Conclave was ineligible under WGA rules.  Most of the Oscar prediction community thinks Conclave is the favorite.  Currently 29 out of the 34 Gold Derby experts are predicting Conclave to pick up the Oscar win.

Here is the complete list of winners from the WGA.