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The First Ten Bets for TFF #52 / Deliver Me from Nowhere Has a Trailer / Die My Love Has a Date The First Ten Bets for TFF #52 / Deliver Me from Nowhere Has a Trailer / Die My Love Has a Date

The First Ten Bets for TFF #52 / Deliver Me from Nowhere Has a Trailer / Die My Love Has a Date

Rick W 0 37

THE FIRST TEN BETS FOR TFF #52



Welp...here it is.  2025's first "Ten Bets" attempt to suss out films that might make the TFF #52 lineup.  I do a good deal of research and study to come up with these lists and even then...this first one usually does well to have six titles on it that actually make it to Telluride.

This was my first Ten Bets for last year (with the films that actually made it to TFF #51 in Bold):

1) Anora/Sean Baker
2) The Seed of the Scared Fig/Mohammad Rasoulof
3) Emilia Perez/Jacques Audiard
4) The Room Next Door/Pedro Almodovar
5) Bird/Andrea Arnold
6) Maria/Pablo Larrain
7) Oh, Canada/Paul Schrader
8) The End/Joshua Oppenheimer
9) Queer/Luca Guadagnino
10) Conclave/Edward Berger

So seven out of the Ten...a better than average year.

Here's the track record for the first Ten Bets for the last 

2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10
2017: 7/10
2018: 5/10
2019: 4/10
2020: No fest
2021: 8/10
2022: 6/10
2023: 6/10
2024: 7/10

The puts the average at 5.8 correct guesses per year.

So, with that caveat, here is your first Ten Bets for TFF #52:

1) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
2) Blue Moon/Linklater
3) Bugonia/Lanthimos
4) The Love That Remains/Palmason
5) Sentimental Value/Trier
6) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardennes
7) The Secret Agent/Filho
8) Hamnet/Zhao
9) Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper
10) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger


Let's see what happens.


DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE HAS A TRAILER AND POSTER

Here's the poster:




Scott Cooper's Bruce Springsteen biopic, Deliver Me from Nowhere, dropped a trailer for the film.  Jeremy Allen White pla
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Last Shot at Cannes / A Look at the E-Mailbag Last Shot at Cannes / A Look at the E-Mailbag

Last Shot at Cannes / A Look at the E-Mailbag

Rick W 0 36

LAST SHOT AT CANNES




Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel has been keeping a steady eye on the speculation about what may be screening at the 78th Cannes Film Festival.  His extensive list has been developing for months.  Now, on the brink of the titles being revealed (on Thursday, April 10th) we take a last look at his predictions and assess possible Telluride selections.  From Ruimy's list, the most likely TFF #52 players are:

After the Hunt/Amazon-MGM/Luca Guadagnino
Couture/No Distrib/Alice Winocour
Die, My Love/No Distribution/Lynne Ramsay
Orphan/No Distrib/Laszlo Nemes
The Disappearance of Joseph Mengele/No Distribution/Kirill Serebrennikov
The History of Sound/Mubi/Oliver Hermanus
The Love That Remains/No Distrib/Hylnur Palmason
The Mastermind/Mubi/Kelly Reichardt
The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol/Sony Pictures Classics/Sylvain Chomet
The Way of the Wind/No Distribution/Terrence Malick
The Young Mother's Home/No Distribution/The Dardennes Brothers
Untitled Jafar Panahi Film





A LOOK AT THE E-MAILBAG




I have a file in one of my email accounts labeled "Future Telluride".  That's where I file away posts/articles about future films that, for some reason...and not always the same reason, strike me as having some Telluride Film Fest potential.  There are some dating all the way back to 2014 that I've held onto.

So, anyway, I was cleaning the folder up a bit over the weekend and kind of went down a rabbit hole of films that I had tagged and that had ultimately screened at TFF over the last couple of fests.  The folder contains links for TFF #50 films such as: The Zone of Interest, Poor Things, Nyad, All of Strangers and The Bikeriders.  For TFF #51: The Outrun, Emilia Perez, Maria, Bird and A Sudden Glimpse to Deeper Things.

So, I thought, what the heck...what films possible for TFF #52 are tucked
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Last Look for Early Oscar Predictions / TFF and Cannes Last Look for Early Oscar Predictions / TFF and Cannes

Last Look for Early Oscar Predictions / TFF and Cannes

Rick W 0 226

 LAST LOOK FOR EARLY OSCAR PREDICITONS



From Gold Derby, here's the last look at an early Oscar Prediction list as a guide to potential TFF #52 films.  Here's my best shot from their list:

After the Hunt/Amazon-MGM/Luca Guadagnino

The Ballad of a Small Player/Netflix/Edward Berger

Bugonia/Focus/Yorgos Lanthimos

Deliver Me from Nowhere/20th Century/Scott Cooper

Die, My Love/No Distributor/Lynne Ramsay

Frankenstein/Netflix/Guillermo Del Toro

Hamnet/Focus/Chloe Zhao

Jay Kelly/Netflix/Noah Baumbach

Marty Supreme/A24/Josh Safdie

Pressure/Focus/Anthony Maras


TFF AND CANNES




I get all entangled in the speculation about the Cannes Film Festival and its lineup every year at this time because historically there has been a steady cache of films that do Cannes in May and then North American Premiere at Telluride over Labor ay weekend.

Over the last ten years (leaving out the Covid year of 2020) the fests share 7-8 titles per year.  Last year, as near as I can discern, Telluride screened eight films that had premiered at Cannes, right on the average.  They were:

All We Imagine as Light
The Apprentice
Bird
Emilia Perez
Misericordia
Santosh
The Seed of the Sacred Fig

And Palme d'Or winner Anora. 

Of these eight, I had five pretty consistently in my posts about Cannes from last year.  Not on my radar: All We Imagine as Light, Misericordia and Santosh.

Though TFF has screened the last two Palme d'Or winners, the Golden Palme is no guarantee that a film will be featured at Telluride.  As a matter of fact, it's often less likely that a Palme winner makes the Telluride lineup. 

Here are the years when TFF programmed the Palme winner:

1974: The Conversation
1984: Paris, Texas
1993: Farwell My Concubine and The Piano (tie and both played TFF)
1996: Secrets and Lies
1997: Taste of Cherry
2003: Elephant
2005: L'Enfant
2007: 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days
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Looking to Cannes Possibilities Looking to Cannes Possibilities

Looking to Cannes Possibilities

Rick W 0 39
LOOKING TO CANNES POSSIBILITIES




One of the more common connections that can inform us about potential TFF films is the pipeline between The SHOW and the Cannes Film Festival.  It is long and productive relationship.  In most years recently Cannes and Telluride have averaged sharing around 8 titles per year.  Just this last year the Cannes to Telluride list included Oscar Best Picture and Palme d'Or winner winner Anora as well as other Palme competition films:

Bird
Emilia Perez
The Apprentice
The Seed of the Sacred Fig

From Un Certain Regard:

Santosh

So looking at what is likely/might be at Cannes is an excellent exercise in predicting what could be in the San Juans on Labor Day weekend.

That said, I'm peeking at The Hollywood Reporters' Cannes take from March 10th and it reveals 17 titles as possible Cannes choices that seem to me to have some chance at making the Cannes/TFF double play.

Here they are:

After the Hunt/Amazon-MGM/Luca Guadagnino
Bugonia/Focus/Yorgos Lanthimos
The Chronology of Water/No Distribution/Kristen Stewart
Die, My Love/No Distribution/Lynne Ramsay
The Disappearance of Joseph Mengele/No Distribution/Kirill Serebrennikov
Eleanor the Great/Sony Pictures Classics/Scarlett Johansson
Hamnet/Focus Features/Chloe Zhao
The History of Sound/Mubi/Oliver Hermanus
In the Hand(s) of Dante/No Distribution/Julian Schnabel
Jupiter/No Distribution/Andrey Zvyaginstev
The Mastermind/Mubi/Kelly Reichardt
Musk/HBO/Alex Gibney
Orphan/No Distribution/Laszlo Nemes
Orwell/NREON/Raoul Peck
The Wave/No Distribution/Sebastian Lelio 
The Way of the Wind/No Distribution/Terrence Malick
The Young Mother's Home/No Distribution/The Dardennes Brothers



I'll have another look at Cannes possibilities on Thursday.




EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com
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Oscar Night and TFF #51

Rick W 0 262
OSCAR NIGHT AND TFF #51

Here are your results from Oscar #97.  TFF #51 films are in Bold.


Best Picture: Anora. 

Best Direction: Sean Baker/Anora. 

Best Actress: Mikey Madison/Anora

Best Actor:  Winner: Adrien Brody/The Brutalist.  

Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez. 

Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain. 

Best Adapted Screenplay: Conclave. 

Best Original Screenplay: Anora.  

Best International Feature: Winner: I'm Still Here.

Best Documentary Feature: No Other Land.

Best Animated Feature: Flow.

Best Cinematography: The Brutalist.

Best Editing: Anora.

Best Original Score: The Brutalist. 

Best Original Song: El Mal/Emilia Perez. 

Best Production Design: Wicked.

Best Costume Design: Wicked. 

Best Makeup/Hair: The Substance.

Best Sound Design: Dune Part Two. 

Best Visual Effects: Dune Part Two.

Best Live Action Short: I Am Not a Robot.

Best Animated Short: In the Shadow of the Cypress.

Best Documentary Short: The Only Girl in the Orchestra.


TYFF #51 films win 10 Oscars.

Anora (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay and Editing.

Emilia Perez (2): Supporting Actress, Song.

Conclave (1): Adapted Screenplay.

A Real Pain (1): Supporting Actor.

No Other Land: Documentary.


The Best Picture Oscar returns to Telluride with Anora.  It's the first TFF film to win Best Picture since 2021 and Nomadland. 

Anora was #3 on the People's Telluride poll with a 4.44 rating.  It was #1 among the Pros at 4.53.  Consequently it topped the TFF Composite poll with an 8.97 rating. That was good enough to put Anora in the All-Time Top Ten of the TFF Composite as well the All-time Top Ten of the Professionals.


MTFB goes 16 of 23 for a 69.6% success rate.  Missed all three shorts categories but was 80% on feature categories.  Among the categories I missed I had five of those seven listed as the possible "upsets".


More on Thursday.



EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com
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MTFB Special: Final Final Oscar Predictions

Rick W 0 252

 MTFB SPECIAL: FINAL FINAL OSCAR PREDICITONS

Here's what I'm saying will happen tonight in all 23 Academy Awards categories (TTF #51 films in Bold):

Best Picture: Winner: Anora.  Possible Upset: Conclave.

Best Direction: Winner: Sean Baker/Anora.  Possible Upset: Brady Corbet/The Brutalist

Best Actress: Winner: Demi Moore/The Substance.  Possible "Upset": Mikey Madison/Anora

Best Actor:  Winner: Adrien Brody/The Brutalist.  Possible Upset: Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown.

Best Supporting Actress: Winner: Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez.  Possible Upset: Ariana Grande/Wicked or Isabella Rossellini/Conclave.

Best Supporting Actor: Winner: Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain.  Possible Upset: Edward Norton/ A Complete Unknown.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Winner: Conclave.  Possible Upset: Nickel Boys.

Best Original Screenplay: Winner: Anora.  Possible Upset: A Real Pain.

Best International Feature: Winner: I'm Still Here.  Possible Upset: Emilia Perez.

Best Documentary Feature: Winner: Porcelain War.  Possible Upset: No Other Land.

Best Animated Feature: winner: The Wild Robot.  Possible Upset: Flow.

Best Cinematography: Winner: The Brutalist.  Possible Upset: Nosferatu.

Best Editing: Conclave.  Possible Upset: Anora.

Best Original Score: Winner: The Brutalist.  Possible Upset: Conclave.

Best Original Song: Winner: El Mal/Emilia Perez.  Possible Upset: The Journey/The Six Triple Eight.

Best Production Design: Winner: Wicked.  Possible Upset: The Brutalist.

Best Costume Design: Winner: Wicked.  Possible Upset: Nosferatu or A Complete Unknown.

Best Makeup/Hair: Winner: The Substance.  Possible Upset: Wicked.

Best Sound Design: Winner: Dune Part Two.  Possible Upset: Wicked or A Complete Unknown.

Best Visual Effects: Winner Dune Part Two.  Possible Upset: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes.

Best Live Action Short: Winner: A Lien.  Possible Upset: Anuja. (But who knows?)

Best Animated Short: Winner: Yuck!.  Possible Upset: Wander to Wonder. (But who knows?)

Best Documentary Short: Winner: I Am Ready Warden.  Possible Upset: The Only Girl in the Orchestra.

 

If I'm 100% accurate:

TFF films win eight Oscars:

Anora (3): Best Picture, Direction and Original Screnplay.

Conclave (2): Best Adapted Screenplay and Editing.

Emilia Perez (2): Best Supporting Actress and Song.

A Real Pain (1): Best Supporting Actor.


Other non-TFF films with multiple wins:

The Brutalist (3): Best Actor, Cinematography and Score.

The Substance (2): Best Actress and Makeup/Hair.

Wicked (2): Best Production Design and Costume Design.

Dune Part Two (2): Best Sound Design and Visual Effects.


My prediction success rate over the past several years:

2024: 19/23 82.6%
2023: 18/23 78.3% 
2022: 21/23 91.3% 
2021: 16/23 69.6% 
2020: 19/24 79.2% 
2019: 19/24 79.2% 
2018: 21/24 87.5% 
2017: 15/24 62.5% 
2016: 15/24 62.5% 
2015: 20/24 83.3% 
2014: 22/24 91.7% 

My lifetime batting average: 205/260.  Success rate: 78.9%.  Let's see what happens tonight!!!!! <
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MTFB's Almost Final Oscar Winner Predictions / RIP Gene Hackman MTFB's Almost Final Oscar Winner Predictions / RIP Gene Hackman

MTFB's Almost Final Oscar Winner Predictions / RIP Gene Hackman

Rick W 0 267
MTFB'S ALMOST FINAL OSCAR WINNER PREDICTIONS




That's right.  "Almost Final".  I finally decided that I'll put up a "Final Final" on Sunday morning so as to have the freshest data for the nine or so categories that are tight.  More on them below.  That said, here are your latest MTFB predictions about who/what wins an Oscar on Sunday night in all 23 categories.  As always, TFF #51 films are in Bold.  A film's previous position is in parentheses to the right of each title.


BEST PICTURE




1) Anora (1)
2) Conclave (2)
3) The Brutalist (3)
4) A Complete Unknown (4)
5) Wicked (5)
6) Emilia Perez (6)
7) I'm Still Here (8)
8) The Substance (7)
9) Dune Part Two (9)
10) Nickel Boys (10)


BEST DIRECTION

1) Sean Baker/Anora (1)
2) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist (2)
3) James Mangold/A Complete Unknown (3)
4) Coralie Fargeat/The Substance (4)
5) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez (5)


BEST ACTRESS

1) Mikey Madison/Anora (3)
2) Demi Moore/The Substance (1)
3) Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here (2)
4) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked (4)
5) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez (5)


BEST ACTOR




1) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist (1)
2) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown (2)
3)
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MTFB Oscar Update: Makeup-Hair, Costumes and More / SAG Awards and TFF #51 / Film Independent Spirit Awards and TFF #51 / Misericordia Trailer MTFB Oscar Update: Makeup-Hair, Costumes and More / SAG Awards and TFF #51 / Film Independent Spirit Awards and TFF #51 / Misericordia Trailer

MTFB Oscar Update: Makeup-Hair, Costumes and More / SAG Awards and TFF #51 / Film Independent Spirit Awards and TFF #51 / Misericordia Trailer

Rick W 0 56
 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: MAKEUP/HAIR, COSTUMES AND MORE




We're in the stretch run now.  Oscar Night is down to less than week from today.  In today's post I update these categories: Makeup/Hair, Costumes, Sound and Visual Effects.  I last posted predictions for these categories on Feb. 10th.  TFF #51 films are in Bold.  Their previous predicted position is indicated to the right in parentheses.


BEST MAKEUP/HAIR




1) The Substance (1)
2) Wicked (2)
3) Emilia Perez (3)
4) Nosferatu (5)
5) A Different Man (4)


BEST SOUND DESIGN

1) Dune Part Two (3)
2) Wicked (2)
3) A Complete Unknown (1)
4) Emilia Perez (4)
5) The Wild Robot (5)



BEST COSTUME DESIGN




1) Wicked (1)
2) Nosferatu (3)
3) Conclave (2)
4) A Complete Unknown (4)
5) Gladiator II (5)



BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune Part Two (1)
2) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (2)
3) Wicked (3)
4) Better Man (4)
5) Alien: Romulus (5)


Comment: I have no TFF #51 films to win in any of these four categories.  The real battle among these four is Sound Design which appears to be a down to the wire race between Dune 2 and Wicked.  I also wouldn't be shocked if A Complete unknown sneaks on Oscar night.
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MTFB Oscar Update: Winners Predictions-Cinematography and More / Bonus Update: Best Picture / SAG on Sunday / Trailer and Release for Thank You Very Much / Interviews and Profiles MTFB Oscar Update: Winners Predictions-Cinematography and More / Bonus Update: Best Picture / SAG on Sunday / Trailer and Release for Thank You Very Much / Interviews and Profiles

MTFB Oscar Update: Winners Predictions-Cinematography and More / Bonus Update: Best Picture / SAG on Sunday / Trailer and Release for Thank You Very Much / Interviews and Profiles

Rick W 0 250
MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: WINNERS PREDICTIONS: CINEMATOGRAPHY AND MORE

Oscar voting is CLOSED!  The ballot deadline was Tuesday evening.  Now we wait...  

I'm updating five categories today that were last posted on Feb. 6th.  As always TFF #51 films are Bold and their previous position on the chart is to the right in parentheses.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Brutalist (1)
2) Nosferatu (3)
3) Dune Part Two (2)
4) Emilia Perez (5)
5) Maria (4)


BEST EDITING




1) Conclave (1)
2) Anora (2)
3) The Brutalist (3)
4) Wicked (5)
5) Emilia Perez (4)


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Wicked (1)
2) The Brutalist (2)
3) Nosferatu (5)
4) Dune Part Two (3)
5) Conclave (4)


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Brutalist (1)
2) Conclave (2)
3) The Wild Robot (3)
4) Emilia Perez (4)
5) Wicked (5)


BEST ORIGINAL SONG




1) El Mal/Emilia Perez (1)
2) The Journey/The Six Triple Eight (2)
3) Mi Camino/Emilia Perez (3)
4) Never Too Late/Never Too Late (5)
5) Like a Bird/Sing Sing (4)

 Comment:  Currently I have TFF #51 films winning two of these five Oscars with Conclave taking Editing (though if Anora wins here that'll keep Editing in the TFF #51 family) and Emilia Perez taking Original Song.  The other "Best Chance" of a pickup is Conclave in Original Score.  At the moment I have Conclave winning Adapted Screenplay and Editing.  If it does upset The Brutalist for Score then maybe an upset is brewing in favor of Conclave over Anora for Best Picture.  


BONUS UPDATE: BEST PICTURE

MTFB Oscar Update: Oscar Winners Predictions: Screenplays and More / BAFTA and TFF #51 / Writers' Guild and TFF #51 MTFB Oscar Update: Oscar Winners Predictions: Screenplays and More / BAFTA and TFF #51 / Writers' Guild and TFF #51

MTFB Oscar Update: Oscar Winners Predictions: Screenplays and More / BAFTA and TFF #51 / Writers' Guild and TFF #51

Rick W 0 42
 MTFB OSCAR WINNERS PREDICTIONS: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE





We're under two weeks to Oscar night.  Today I am updating predictions for both screenplay categories as well as International , Animated and Documentary features.  These categories were first predicted two weeks back on Feb. 3rd.  As always, TFF films are Bold.  A film's previous ranking is indicated to the right in parentheses.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Conclave (1)
2) A Complete Unknown (2)
3) Nickel Boys (3)
4) Emilia Perez (4)
5) Sing Sing (5)


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY




1) Anora (1)
2) The Substance (3)
3) A Real Pain (4)
4) The Brutalist (2)
5) September 5 (5)


BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) I'm Still Here (1)
2) Emilia Perez (3)
3) The Seed of the Sacred Fig (2)
4) Flow  (4)
5) The Girl with the Needle (5)


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE




1) The Wild Robot (1)
2) Flow (2)
3) Inside Out 2 (3)
4) Memoir of a Snail (5)
5) Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (4)


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) No Other Land (1)
2) Porcelain War (4)
3) Black Box Diaries (3)
4) Sugarcane (2)
5) Soundtrack to a Co
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