MTFB SPECIAL: FINAL FINAL OSCAR PREDICITONS
Here's what I'm saying will happen tonight in all 23 Academy Awards categories (TTF #51 films in Bold):
Best Picture: Winner: Anora. Possible Upset: Conclave.
Best Direction: Winner: Sean Baker/Anora. Possible Upset: Brady Corbet/The Brutalist
Best Actress: Winner: Demi Moore/The Substance. Possible "Upset": Mikey Madison/Anora
Best Actor: Winner: Adrien Brody/The Brutalist. Possible Upset: Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown.
Best Supporting Actress: Winner: Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez. Possible Upset: Ariana Grande/Wicked or Isabella Rossellini/Conclave.
Best Supporting Actor: Winner: Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain. Possible Upset: Edward Norton/ A Complete Unknown.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Winner: Conclave. Possible Upset: Nickel Boys.
Best Original Screenplay: Winner: Anora. Possible Upset: A Real Pain.
Best International Feature: Winner: I'm Still Here. Possible Upset: Emilia Perez.
Best Documentary Feature: Winner: Porcelain War. Possible Upset: No Other Land.
Best Animated Feature: winner: The Wild Robot. Possible Upset: Flow.
Best Cinematography: Winner: The Brutalist. Possible Upset: Nosferatu.
Best Editing: Conclave. Possible Upset: Anora.
Best Original Score: Winner: The Brutalist. Possible Upset: Conclave.
Best Original Song: Winner: El Mal/Emilia Perez. Possible Upset: The Journey/The Six Triple Eight.
Best Production Design: Winner: Wicked. Possible Upset: The Brutalist.
Best Costume Design: Winner: Wicked. Possible Upset: Nosferatu or A Complete Unknown.
Best Makeup/Hair: Winner: The Substance. Possible Upset: Wicked.
Best Sound Design: Winner: Dune Part Two. Possible Upset: Wicked or A Complete Unknown.
Best Visual Effects: Winner Dune Part Two. Possible Upset: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes.
Best Live Action Short: Winner: A Lien. Possible Upset: Anuja. (But who knows?)
Best Animated Short: Winner: Yuck!. Possible Upset: Wander to Wonder. (But who knows?)
Best Documentary Short: Winner: I Am Ready Warden. Possible Upset: The Only Girl in the Orchestra.
If I'm 100% accurate:
TFF films win eight Oscars:
Anora (3): Best Picture, Direction and Original Screnplay.
Conclave (2): Best Adapted Screenplay and Editing.
Emilia Perez (2): Best Supporting Actress and Song.
A Real Pain (1): Best Supporting Actor.
Other non-TFF films with multiple wins:
The Brutalist (3): Best Actor, Cinematography and Score.
The Substance (2): Best Actress and Makeup/Hair.
Wicked (2): Best Production Design and Costume Design.
Dune Part Two (2): Best Sound Design and Visual Effects.
My prediction success rate over the past several years:
2024: 19/23 82.6%
2023: 18/23 78.3%
2022: 21/23 91.3%
2021: 16/23 69.6%
2020: 19/24 79.2%
2019: 19/24 79.2%
2018: 21/24 87.5%
2017: 15/24 62.5%
2016: 15/24 62.5%
2015: 20/24 83.3%
2014: 22/24 91.7%
My lifetime batting average: 205/260. Success rate: 78.9%. Let's see what happens tonight!!!!!
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Best Picture
Winner
Anora Alex Coco, Samantha Quan and Sean Baker, Producers
Nominees
The Brutalist Nick Gordon, Brian Young, Andrew Morrison, D.J. Gugenheim and Brady Corbet, Producers
A Complete Unknown Fred Berger, James Mangold and Alex Heineman, Producers
Conclave Tessa Ross, Juliette Howell and Michael A. Jackman, Producers
Dune: Part Two Mary Parent, Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe and Denis Villeneuve, Producers
Emilia Pérez Pascal Caucheteux and Jacques Audiard, Producers
I'm Still Here Maria Carlota Bruno and Rodrigo Teixeira, Producers
Nickel Boys Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Joslyn Barnes, Producers
The Substance Coralie Fargeat and Tim Bevan & Eric Fellner, Producers
Wicked Marc Platt, Producer
Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees
Timothée Chalamet A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes Conclave
Sebastian Stan The Apprentice
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees
Yura Borisov Anora
Edward Norton A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong The Apprentice
Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees
Cynthia Erivo Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón Emilia Pérez
Demi Moore The Substance
Fernanda Torres I'm Still Here
Actress in a Supporting Role
Winner
Zoe Saldaña
MTFB'S ALMOST FINAL OSCAR WINNER PREDICTIONS
That's right. "Almost Final". I finally decided that I'll put up a "Final Final" on Sunday morning so as to have the freshest data for the nine or so categories that are tight. More on them below. That said, here are your latest MTFB predictions about who/what wins an Oscar on Sunday night in all 23 categories. As always, TFF #51 films are in Bold. A film's previous position is in parentheses to the right of each title.
BEST PICTURE
1) Anora (1)
2) Conclave (2)
3) The Brutalist (3)
4) A Complete Unknown (4)
5) Wicked (5)
6) Emilia Perez (6)
7) I'm Still Here (8)
8) The Substance (7)
9) Dune Part Two (9)
10) Nickel Boys (10)
BEST DIRECTION
1) Sean Baker/Anora (1)
2) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist (2)
3) James Mangold/A Complete Unknown (3)
4) Coralie Fargeat/The Substance (4)
5) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez (5)
BEST ACTRESS
1) Mikey Madison/Anora (3)
2) Demi Moore/The Substance (1)
3) Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here (2)
4) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked (4)
5) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez (5)
BEST ACTOR
1) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist (1)
2) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown (2)
3)
MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: WINNERS PREDICTIONS: CINEMATOGRAPHY AND MORE
Oscar voting is CLOSED! The ballot deadline was Tuesday evening. Now we wait...
I'm updating five categories today that were last posted on Feb. 6th. As always TFF #51 films are Bold and their previous position on the chart is to the right in parentheses.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) The Brutalist (1)
2) Nosferatu (3)
3) Dune Part Two (2)
4) Emilia Perez (5)
5) Maria (4)
BEST EDITING
1) Conclave (1)
2) Anora (2)
3) The Brutalist (3)
4) Wicked (5)
5) Emilia Perez (4)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1) Wicked (1)
2) The Brutalist (2)
3) Nosferatu (5)
4) Dune Part Two (3)
5) Conclave (4)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1) The Brutalist (1)
2) Conclave (2)
3) The Wild Robot (3)
4) Emilia Perez (4)
5) Wicked (5)
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1) El Mal/Emilia Perez (1)
2) The Journey/The Six Triple Eight (2)
3) Mi Camino/Emilia Perez (3)
4) Never Too Late/Never Too Late (5)
5) Like a Bird/Sing Sing (4)
Comment: Currently I have TFF #51 films winning two of these five Oscars with Conclave taking Editing (though if Anora wins here that'll keep Editing in the TFF #51 family) and Emilia Perez taking Original Song. The other "Best Chance" of a pickup is Conclave in Original Score. At the moment I have Conclave winning Adapted Screenplay and Editing. If it does upset The Brutalist for Score then maybe an upset is brewing in favor of Conclave over Anora for Best Picture.
BONUS UPDATE: BEST PICTURE
Cloud9 Studios handling International Sales at the European Film Market
Alex Pettyfer (Magic Mike, Guy Ritchie’s The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare) is joined by Academy Award-nominee Guy Pearce (A24’s The Brutalist, Christopher Nolan’s Memento, Kathryn Bigelow’s The Hurt Locker), Maria Pedraza (Netflix’s “Money Heist”) and Adewale Akinnuoye-Agbaje (Warner Bros.’ Suicide Squad, HBO’s “His Dark Materials”) in the erotic thriller Blurred, it was announced today. The film is written and directed by Ben Cookson (Waiting for Anya starring Noah Schnapp, Jean Reno and Anjelica Huston).
Blurred is produced by Pettyfer and James Ireland for Dark Dreams Entertainment and Yariv Lerner (Lionsgate’s Hellboy and Rambo: Last Blood) for Film Forage, and executive produced by Pia Patatian for Cloud9 Studios.
Producer and global sales executive Pia Patatian is handling international rights to the thriller at the European Film Market through her newly launched production, sales and financing company Cloud9 Studios (formerly Concord Studios) and will be showing footage to buyers at a private presentation. Production was completed last summer in the UK on Blurred, an erotic thriller set in New York’s fashion world.
“Blurred is a smart and sexy thriller with a brilliant cast led by Alex Pettyfer who is joined by Guy Pearce. Set against the hustle and flow of New York's fashion world, it’s a beautiful, raw and intense thrill ride and we cannot wait to introduce this fantastic project to buyers in Berlin,” said Cloud9 Studios President Pia Patatian.
“Blurred has been an incredible journey—one that has taken years of work, creativity, and passion. Collaborating with such exceptional talent, both in front of and behind the camera, has been nothing short of inspiring. This film is a testament to the power of storytelling, and we cannot wait to finally share it with the world,” added James Ireland and Alex Pettyfer, Dark Dreams Entertainment.
Alex Pettyfer recently starred in Guy Ritchie’s The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare with Henry Cavill. Additional credits include Magic Mike with Channing Tatum and Matthew McConaughey, 5lbs of Pressure starring Luke Evans, Chief of Station starring Olga Kurylenko, and the upcoming romantic comedy Under the Stars with Toni Collette and Andy Garcia.
Guy Pearce received an Academy Award nomination for A24’s 2024 acclaimed film The Brutalist starring Adrien Brody and Felicity Jones. Previously, he starred in Christopher Nolan’s Memento, Kathryn Bigelow’s Academy Award-winning film The Hurt Locker, Marvel’s Iron Man 3 starring Robert Downey Jr., Warner Bros.’ L.A. Confidential with Russel Crowe, Focus Features’ Mary Queen of Scots alongside Margot Robbie and Saoirse Ronan, and Ridley Scot’s Prometheus with Idris Elba and Charlize Theron.
Maria Pedraza is best known for Netflix’s crime drama “Money Heist.” Additional credits include Amazon’s Awareness, Universal Pictures’ The Courier, and Netflix’s Dancing on Glass.
Adewale Akinnuoye-Agbaje is best known for playing Killer Croc in the Warner Bros.’ DC Comics feature Suicide Squad with Will Smith and Margot Robbie. Additional credits include HBO’s “His Dark Materials” starring James McAvoy, J.J. Abrams’ “Lost,” Trumbo starring Bryan Cranston, Thor: The Dark W
MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: WINNERS PREDICTIONS: ABOVE THE LINE
The difference two weeks can make. Since the last posting of theses six "Above the Line" categories, the Karla Sofia Gascon implosion has done major damage to the Oscar chances of Emilia Perez and the 1-2-3 blitz from last weekend of Anora winning Best Picture from the Critics' Choice as well as the Producers' Guild and the directing trophy from the Directors' Guild has re-shaped the Oscar map. Here's where we are as of this morning. As always TTFF films are Bold and a film/performer's position from the last set of predictions is indicated in parentheses to the right.
BEST PICTURE
1) Anora (4)
2) Conclave (3)
3) A Complete Unknown (5)
4) The Brutalist (2)
5) Wicked (6)
6) Emilia Perez (1)
7) The Substance (7)
8) I'm Still Here (10)
9) Dune Part Two (9)
10) Nickel Boys (8)
BEST DIRECTION
1) Sean Baker/Anora (3)
2) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist (1)
3) James Mangold/A Complete Unknown (4)
4) Coralie Fargeat/The Substance (5)
5) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez (2)
BEST ACTRESS
1) Demi Moore/The Substance (1)
2) Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here (3)
3) Mikey Madison/Anora (3)
4) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked (5)
5) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez (4)
BEST ACTOR
1) Adrien Brody/The Brutali
MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: FIRST WINNERS PREDICTIONS: PICTURE, DIRECTING AND ACTING
We're four weeks and a couple of days away from Oscar Night. Today MTFB is moving into the business of predicting who will actually win The Academy Award on March 2nd. We start with six "above-the-line" categories: Picture, Direction, and all four Acting categories. As always, TFF films are in Bold.
BEST PICTURE
1) Emilia Perez
2) The Brutalist
3) Conclave
4) Anora
5) A Complete Unknown
6) Wicked
7) The Substance
8) Nickel Boys
9) Dune: Part Two
10) I'm Still Here
BEST DIRECTION
1) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist
2) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez
3) Sean Baker/Anora
4) James Mangold/A CompleteUnknown
5) Coralie Fargeat/The Substance
BEST ACTRESS
1) Demi Moore/The Substance
2) Mikey Madison/Anora
3) Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here
4) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez
5) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked
BEST ACTOR
1) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown
2) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist
3) Ralph Fiennes/Conclave
4) Colman Domingo/Sing Sing
5) Sebastian Stan/The Apprentice
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez