MTFB SPECIAL: FINAL FINAL OSCAR PREDICITONS
Here's what I'm saying will happen tonight in all 23 Academy Awards categories (TTF #51 films in Bold):
Best Picture: Winner: Anora. Possible Upset: Conclave.
Best Direction: Winner: Sean Baker/Anora. Possible Upset: Brady Corbet/The Brutalist
Best Actress: Winner: Demi Moore/The Substance. Possible "Upset": Mikey Madison/Anora
Best Actor: Winner: Adrien Brody/The Brutalist. Possible Upset: Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown.
Best Supporting Actress: Winner: Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez. Possible Upset: Ariana Grande/Wicked or Isabella Rossellini/Conclave.
Best Supporting Actor: Winner: Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain. Possible Upset: Edward Norton/ A Complete Unknown.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Winner: Conclave. Possible Upset: Nickel Boys.
Best Original Screenplay: Winner: Anora. Possible Upset: A Real Pain.
Best International Feature: Winner: I'm Still Here. Possible Upset: Emilia Perez.
Best Documentary Feature: Winner: Porcelain War. Possible Upset: No Other Land.
Best Animated Feature: winner: The Wild Robot. Possible Upset: Flow.
Best Cinematography: Winner: The Brutalist. Possible Upset: Nosferatu.
Best Editing: Conclave. Possible Upset: Anora.
Best Original Score: Winner: The Brutalist. Possible Upset: Conclave.
Best Original Song: Winner: El Mal/Emilia Perez. Possible Upset: The Journey/The Six Triple Eight.
Best Production Design: Winner: Wicked. Possible Upset: The Brutalist.
Best Costume Design: Winner: Wicked. Possible Upset: Nosferatu or A Complete Unknown.
Best Makeup/Hair: Winner: The Substance. Possible Upset: Wicked.
Best Sound Design: Winner: Dune Part Two. Possible Upset: Wicked or A Complete Unknown.
Best Visual Effects: Winner Dune Part Two. Possible Upset: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes.
Best Live Action Short: Winner: A Lien. Possible Upset: Anuja. (But who knows?)
Best Animated Short: Winner: Yuck!. Possible Upset: Wander to Wonder. (But who knows?)
Best Documentary Short: Winner: I Am Ready Warden. Possible Upset: The Only Girl in the Orchestra.
If I'm 100% accurate:
TFF films win eight Oscars:
Anora (3): Best Picture, Direction and Original Screnplay.
Conclave (2): Best Adapted Screenplay and Editing.
Emilia Perez (2): Best Supporting Actress and Song.
A Real Pain (1): Best Supporting Actor.
Other non-TFF films with multiple wins:
The Brutalist (3): Best Actor, Cinematography and Score.
The Substance (2): Best Actress and Makeup/Hair.
Wicked (2): Best Production Design and Costume Design.
Dune Part Two (2): Best Sound Design and Visual Effects.
My prediction success rate over the past several years:
2024: 19/23 82.6%
2023: 18/23 78.3%
2022: 21/23 91.3%
2021: 16/23 69.6%
2020: 19/24 79.2%
2019: 19/24 79.2%
2018: 21/24 87.5%
2017: 15/24 62.5%
2016: 15/24 62.5%
2015: 20/24 83.3%
2014: 22/24 91.7%
My lifetime batting average: 205/260. Success rate: 78.9%. Let's see what happens tonight!!!!!
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MTFB'S ALMOST FINAL OSCAR WINNER PREDICTIONS
That's right. "Almost Final". I finally decided that I'll put up a "Final Final" on Sunday morning so as to have the freshest data for the nine or so categories that are tight. More on them below. That said, here are your latest MTFB predictions about who/what wins an Oscar on Sunday night in all 23 categories. As always, TFF #51 films are in Bold. A film's previous position is in parentheses to the right of each title.
BEST PICTURE
1) Anora (1)
2) Conclave (2)
3) The Brutalist (3)
4) A Complete Unknown (4)
5) Wicked (5)
6) Emilia Perez (6)
7) I'm Still Here (8)
8) The Substance (7)
9) Dune Part Two (9)
10) Nickel Boys (10)
BEST DIRECTION
1) Sean Baker/Anora (1)
2) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist (2)
3) James Mangold/A Complete Unknown (3)
4) Coralie Fargeat/The Substance (4)
5) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez (5)
BEST ACTRESS
1) Mikey Madison/Anora (3)
2) Demi Moore/The Substance (1)
3) Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here (2)
4) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked (4)
5) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez (5)
BEST ACTOR
1) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist (1)
2) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown (2)
3)
MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: WINNERS PREDICTIONS: CINEMATOGRAPHY AND MORE
Oscar voting is CLOSED! The ballot deadline was Tuesday evening. Now we wait...
I'm updating five categories today that were last posted on Feb. 6th. As always TFF #51 films are Bold and their previous position on the chart is to the right in parentheses.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) The Brutalist (1)
2) Nosferatu (3)
3) Dune Part Two (2)
4) Emilia Perez (5)
5) Maria (4)
BEST EDITING
1) Conclave (1)
2) Anora (2)
3) The Brutalist (3)
4) Wicked (5)
5) Emilia Perez (4)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1) Wicked (1)
2) The Brutalist (2)
3) Nosferatu (5)
4) Dune Part Two (3)
5) Conclave (4)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1) The Brutalist (1)
2) Conclave (2)
3) The Wild Robot (3)
4) Emilia Perez (4)
5) Wicked (5)
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1) El Mal/Emilia Perez (1)
2) The Journey/The Six Triple Eight (2)
3) Mi Camino/Emilia Perez (3)
4) Never Too Late/Never Too Late (5)
5) Like a Bird/Sing Sing (4)
Comment: Currently I have TFF #51 films winning two of these five Oscars with Conclave taking Editing (though if Anora wins here that'll keep Editing in the TFF #51 family) and Emilia Perez taking Original Song. The other "Best Chance" of a pickup is Conclave in Original Score. At the moment I have Conclave winning Adapted Screenplay and Editing. If it does upset The Brutalist for Score then maybe an upset is brewing in favor of Conclave over Anora for Best Picture.
BONUS UPDATE: BEST PICTURE
For the first time in the history of the Goyas, the Goya for Best Feature Film, was awarded to two films: the historical drama set in 1970s Barcelona, The 47 directed by Marcel Barrena and the thriller set in the Basque Country Undercover, directed by Arantxa Echevarría.
The award winners:
Best Film (ex aequo)
The 47 – Marcel Barrena
Undercover – Arantxa Echevarría
Best Director - Isaki Lacuesta, Pol Rodríguez – Saturn Return (Spain/France)
Best New Director - Javier Macipe – The Blue Star (Spain/Argentina)
Best Actress - Carolina Yuste - Undercover
Best Actor - Eduard Fernández - Marco
Best Supporting Actress- Clara Segura – The 47
Best Supporting Actor - Salva Reina – The 47
Best New Actress - Laura Weissmahr – Salve María
Best New Actor - Pepe Lorente – The Blue Star
Best Original Screenplay - Eduard Sola – A House on Fire
Best Adapted Screenplay - Pedro Almodóvar – The Room Next Door
Best Documentary Film - La guitarra flamenca de Yerai Cortés – Antón Álvarez
Best Animated Film - Black Butterflies – David Baute (Spain/Panama)
Best Cinematography -
Edu Grau – The Room Next Door
Best Editing - Javi Frutos – Saturn Return
Best Production Supervision - Carlos Apolinario – The 47
Best Art Direction - Javier Albariño – The Red Virgin (Spain/United States)
Best Costume Design - Arantxa Ezquerro – The Red Virgin
Best Makeup and Hairstyles - Karmele Soler, Sergio Pérez Berbel, Nacho Díaz – Marco
Best Special Effects - Laura Canals, Iván López Hernández – The 47
Best Sound - Diana Sagrista, Eva Valiño, Alejandro Castillo, Antonin Dalmasso – Saturn Return
Best Original Score - Alberto Iglesias – The Room Next Door
Best Original Song -
MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: PREDICTING OSCAR WINNERS: CINEMATOGRAPHY AND MORE
As the Emilia Perez series of provocations and scandals seems to be winding down in intensity, we're starting to see some actual effects regarding what could happen on Oscar night. Here are the first predictions for winners in Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Score and Song. As usual, TFF films are in Bold.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) The Brutalist
2) Dune: Part Two
3) Nosferatu
4) Maria
5) Emilia Perez
BEST EDITING
1) Conclave
2) Anora
3) The Brutalist
4) Emilia Perez
5) Wicked
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1) Wicked
2) The Brutalist
3) Dune: Part Two
4) Conclave
5) Nosferatu
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1) The Brutalist
2) Conclave
3) The Wild Robot
4) Emilia Perez
5) Wicked
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1) El Mal/Emilia Perez
2) The Journey/The Six Triple Eight
3) Mi Camino/Emilia Perez
4) Like A Bird/Sing Sing
5) Never Too Late/Never Too Late
Comments: Tightest category among these five is Editing where Conclave is barely in front of Anora and The Brutalist is close too. If Conclave wins this and Adapted Screenplay...well...could be a good night in the end for Conclave.
The Emilia Perez blowback does not seem to have been particularly bad in Best Song. We'll see if that's still true two weeks from now when we re-visit these five categories. Diane Warren's shot to finally win an Oscar for songwriting has a real possibility of happening.
Speaking of low blowback for Emilia Perez in Best Song, you have to wonder if Zoe Saldana might still have a chance for Best Supporting Actress. We'll look at that category again next week.
MTFB OSCAR SPECIAL; FINAL NOMINATION PREDICTIONS
Well, here we are...months removed from the close of TFF #51 and now down to less than 24 hours until the big reveal of nominees for the 97th Academy Awards. It could be a history making day for film from Telluride and the Oscars. The largest number of nominees in a single year that have come from TFF films is 35 which has happened thrice with TFF films from 2016, 2021 and 2023 (those are the years of the fest). TFF could see 35+ nominations for films that screened there by the end of the announcement tomorrow morning. Exciting stuff...
So, drumroll please, here are the MTFB final Oscar nomination predictions (as always, TFF films are in Bold. The film's previous rank is to the right in parentheses).
BEST PICTURE
1) Conclave
2) Emilia Perez
3) The Brutalist
4) Anora
5) A Complete Unknown
6) Wicked
7) Dune: Part Two
8) A Real Pain
9) The Substance
10) Sing Sing
Others: September 5, Nickel Boys and All We Imagine as Light.
Comment: It looks like TFF films will land four of the 10 slots which ties a record for TFF. However, if any of the "Other" possibilities sneak in over Sing Sing or The Substance, a new record could be set. I'd really love it if September 5 could slide in.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist
2) Sean Baker/Anora
3) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez
4) Edward Berger/Conclave
5) Coralie Fargeat/The Substance
Others: James Mangold/ A Complete Unknown, RaMell Ross/Nickel Boys and Payal Kapadia/All We Imagine as Light.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Demi Moore/The Substance
2) Mikey Madison/Anora
3) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez
4) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked
5) Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here
Others: Marianne Jean-Baptiste/Hard Truths, Pamela Anderson/The Last Showgirl and Angelina Jolie/Maria.
BEST ACTOR
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MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE
Before we get to this post's Oscar nomination predictions, The Academy last night extended the nomination voting window by two days and moved the announcement of nominees to Sunday, January 19th due to the L.A. fires. Now, onto the predictions which seem sort of a small consideration in light of what's going on in Southern California.
Here are updated nomination predictions for the Screenplay categories as well as for Best Costume Design, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects. These categories were last predicted on Dec. 26th. A film's previous rank appears to the right in parentheses. TFF #51 films are in Bold.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Conclave (1)
2) Emilia Perez (2)
3) Sing Sing (3)
4) Nickel Boys (4)
5) Dune Part Two (5)
Others: A Complete Unknown, Wicked and The Room Next Door.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Anora (1)
2) The Brutalist (2)
3) A Real Pain (3)
4) The Substance (4)
5) September 5 (5)
Others: Hard Truths, All We Imagine as Light and The Seed of the Sacred Fig.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1) Wicked (1)
2) Dune Part Two (2)
3) Gladiator II (4)
4) Maria (3)
5) Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (5)
Others: Nosferatu, Conclave and Blitz.
BEST MAKEUP/HAIR
1) The Substance (1)
2) Wicked (2)
3) Dune Part Two (3)
4) Nosferatu (4)
5) A Different Man (5)
Others: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Emilia Perez, The Apprentice.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
GOLDEN GLOBE WINNERS AND TFF
The Golden Globe Awards for Film and Television were handed out last night and here are your winners with TFF films/performers in Bold.
Best Picture (Drama): The Brutalist
Best Picture (Musical or Comedy): Emilia Perez
Best Director: Brady Corbet/The Brutalist
Best Actress (Drama): Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here
Best Actor (Drama): Adrien Brody/The Brutalist
Best Actress (Musical or Comedy): Demi Moore/The Substance
Best Actor (Musical or Comedy): Sebastian Stan/A Different Man
Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez
Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain
Best Screenplay: Conclave
Best Animated Film: Flow
Best Non-English Film: Emilia Perez
Best Original Score: Challengers
Best Original Song: El Mal/Emilia Perez
Cinematic and Box Office Achievement: Wicked
MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SUPPORTING ACTING AND MORE
I'm updating the Supporting Acting categories today as well as Original Score, Original Song And Sound. These categories were last updated on Dec. 23rd. An actor's/film's previous position is indicated in (parentheses). TFF #51 films are in Bold.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez (1)
2) Ariana Grande-Butera/Wicked (2)
3) Isabella Rossellini/Conclave (3)
4) Felicity Jones/The Brutalist (4)
5) Danielle Deadwyler/The Piano Lesson (5)
Others: Selena Gomez/Emilia Perez, Margaret Qualley/The Substance and Aunjanue Eillis-Taylor/Nickel Boys.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR