MTFB SPECIAL: FINAL FINAL OSCAR PREDICITONS
Here's what I'm saying will happen tonight in all 23 Academy Awards categories (TTF #51 films in Bold):
Best Picture: Winner: Anora. Possible Upset: Conclave.
Best Direction: Winner: Sean Baker/Anora. Possible Upset: Brady Corbet/The Brutalist
Best Actress: Winner: Demi Moore/The Substance. Possible "Upset": Mikey Madison/Anora
Best Actor: Winner: Adrien Brody/The Brutalist. Possible Upset: Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown.
Best Supporting Actress: Winner: Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez. Possible Upset: Ariana Grande/Wicked or Isabella Rossellini/Conclave.
Best Supporting Actor: Winner: Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain. Possible Upset: Edward Norton/ A Complete Unknown.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Winner: Conclave. Possible Upset: Nickel Boys.
Best Original Screenplay: Winner: Anora. Possible Upset: A Real Pain.
Best International Feature: Winner: I'm Still Here. Possible Upset: Emilia Perez.
Best Documentary Feature: Winner: Porcelain War. Possible Upset: No Other Land.
Best Animated Feature: winner: The Wild Robot. Possible Upset: Flow.
Best Cinematography: Winner: The Brutalist. Possible Upset: Nosferatu.
Best Editing: Conclave. Possible Upset: Anora.
Best Original Score: Winner: The Brutalist. Possible Upset: Conclave.
Best Original Song: Winner: El Mal/Emilia Perez. Possible Upset: The Journey/The Six Triple Eight.
Best Production Design: Winner: Wicked. Possible Upset: The Brutalist.
Best Costume Design: Winner: Wicked. Possible Upset: Nosferatu or A Complete Unknown.
Best Makeup/Hair: Winner: The Substance. Possible Upset: Wicked.
Best Sound Design: Winner: Dune Part Two. Possible Upset: Wicked or A Complete Unknown.
Best Visual Effects: Winner Dune Part Two. Possible Upset: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes.
Best Live Action Short: Winner: A Lien. Possible Upset: Anuja. (But who knows?)
Best Animated Short: Winner: Yuck!. Possible Upset: Wander to Wonder. (But who knows?)
Best Documentary Short: Winner: I Am Ready Warden. Possible Upset: The Only Girl in the Orchestra.
If I'm 100% accurate:
TFF films win eight Oscars:
Anora (3): Best Picture, Direction and Original Screnplay.
Conclave (2): Best Adapted Screenplay and Editing.
Emilia Perez (2): Best Supporting Actress and Song.
A Real Pain (1): Best Supporting Actor.
Other non-TFF films with multiple wins:
The Brutalist (3): Best Actor, Cinematography and Score.
The Substance (2): Best Actress and Makeup/Hair.
Wicked (2): Best Production Design and Costume Design.
Dune Part Two (2): Best Sound Design and Visual Effects.
My prediction success rate over the past several years:
2024: 19/23 82.6%
2023: 18/23 78.3%
2022: 21/23 91.3%
2021: 16/23 69.6%
2020: 19/24 79.2%
2019: 19/24 79.2%
2018: 21/24 87.5%
2017: 15/24 62.5%
2016: 15/24 62.5%
2015: 20/24 83.3%
2014: 22/24 91.7%
My lifetime batting average: 205/260. Success rate: 78.9%. Let's see what happens tonight!!!!!
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Best Picture
Winner
Anora Alex Coco, Samantha Quan and Sean Baker, Producers
Nominees
The Brutalist Nick Gordon, Brian Young, Andrew Morrison, D.J. Gugenheim and Brady Corbet, Producers
A Complete Unknown Fred Berger, James Mangold and Alex Heineman, Producers
Conclave Tessa Ross, Juliette Howell and Michael A. Jackman, Producers
Dune: Part Two Mary Parent, Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe and Denis Villeneuve, Producers
Emilia Pérez Pascal Caucheteux and Jacques Audiard, Producers
I'm Still Here Maria Carlota Bruno and Rodrigo Teixeira, Producers
Nickel Boys Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Joslyn Barnes, Producers
The Substance Coralie Fargeat and Tim Bevan & Eric Fellner, Producers
Wicked Marc Platt, Producer
Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees
Timothée Chalamet A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes Conclave
Sebastian Stan The Apprentice
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees
Yura Borisov Anora
Edward Norton A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong The Apprentice
Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees
Cynthia Erivo Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón Emilia Pérez
Demi Moore The Substance
Fernanda Torres I'm Still Here
Actress in a Supporting Role
Winner
Zoe Saldaña
MTFB'S ALMOST FINAL OSCAR WINNER PREDICTIONS
That's right. "Almost Final". I finally decided that I'll put up a "Final Final" on Sunday morning so as to have the freshest data for the nine or so categories that are tight. More on them below. That said, here are your latest MTFB predictions about who/what wins an Oscar on Sunday night in all 23 categories. As always, TFF #51 films are in Bold. A film's previous position is in parentheses to the right of each title.
BEST PICTURE
1) Anora (1)
2) Conclave (2)
3) The Brutalist (3)
4) A Complete Unknown (4)
5) Wicked (5)
6) Emilia Perez (6)
7) I'm Still Here (8)
8) The Substance (7)
9) Dune Part Two (9)
10) Nickel Boys (10)
BEST DIRECTION
1) Sean Baker/Anora (1)
2) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist (2)
3) James Mangold/A Complete Unknown (3)
4) Coralie Fargeat/The Substance (4)
5) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez (5)
BEST ACTRESS
1) Mikey Madison/Anora (3)
2) Demi Moore/The Substance (1)
3) Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here (2)
4) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked (4)
5) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez (5)
BEST ACTOR
1) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist (1)
2) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown (2)
3)
MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: MAKEUP/HAIR, COSTUMES AND MORE
We're in the stretch run now. Oscar Night is down to less than week from today. In today's post I update these categories: Makeup/Hair, Costumes, Sound and Visual Effects. I last posted predictions for these categories on Feb. 10th. TFF #51 films are in Bold. Their previous predicted position is indicated to the right in parentheses.
BEST MAKEUP/HAIR
1) The Substance (1)
2) Wicked (2)
3) Emilia Perez (3)
4) Nosferatu (5)
5) A Different Man (4)
BEST SOUND DESIGN
1) Dune Part Two (3)
2) Wicked (2)
3) A Complete Unknown (1)
4) Emilia Perez (4)
5) The Wild Robot (5)
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1) Wicked (1)
2) Nosferatu (3)
3) Conclave (2)
4) A Complete Unknown (4)
5) Gladiator II (5)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1) Dune Part Two (1)
2) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (2)
3) Wicked (3)
4) Better Man (4)
5) Alien: Romulus (5)
Comment: I have no TFF #51 films to win in any of these four categories. The real battle among these four is Sound Design which appears to be a down to the wire race between Dune 2 and Wicked. I also wouldn't be shocked if A Complete unknown sneaks on Oscar night.
MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: WINNERS PREDICTIONS: CINEMATOGRAPHY AND MORE
Oscar voting is CLOSED! The ballot deadline was Tuesday evening. Now we wait...
I'm updating five categories today that were last posted on Feb. 6th. As always TFF #51 films are Bold and their previous position on the chart is to the right in parentheses.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) The Brutalist (1)
2) Nosferatu (3)
3) Dune Part Two (2)
4) Emilia Perez (5)
5) Maria (4)
BEST EDITING
1) Conclave (1)
2) Anora (2)
3) The Brutalist (3)
4) Wicked (5)
5) Emilia Perez (4)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1) Wicked (1)
2) The Brutalist (2)
3) Nosferatu (5)
4) Dune Part Two (3)
5) Conclave (4)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1) The Brutalist (1)
2) Conclave (2)
3) The Wild Robot (3)
4) Emilia Perez (4)
5) Wicked (5)
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1) El Mal/Emilia Perez (1)
2) The Journey/The Six Triple Eight (2)
3) Mi Camino/Emilia Perez (3)
4) Never Too Late/Never Too Late (5)
5) Like a Bird/Sing Sing (4)
Comment: Currently I have TFF #51 films winning two of these five Oscars with Conclave taking Editing (though if Anora wins here that'll keep Editing in the TFF #51 family) and Emilia Perez taking Original Song. The other "Best Chance" of a pickup is Conclave in Original Score. At the moment I have Conclave winning Adapted Screenplay and Editing. If it does upset The Brutalist for Score then maybe an upset is brewing in favor of Conclave over Anora for Best Picture.
BONUS UPDATE: BEST PICTURE
MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: WINNERS PREDICTIONS: ABOVE THE LINE
The difference two weeks can make. Since the last posting of theses six "Above the Line" categories, the Karla Sofia Gascon implosion has done major damage to the Oscar chances of Emilia Perez and the 1-2-3 blitz from last weekend of Anora winning Best Picture from the Critics' Choice as well as the Producers' Guild and the directing trophy from the Directors' Guild has re-shaped the Oscar map. Here's where we are as of this morning. As always TTFF films are Bold and a film/performer's position from the last set of predictions is indicated in parentheses to the right.
BEST PICTURE
1) Anora (4)
2) Conclave (3)
3) A Complete Unknown (5)
4) The Brutalist (2)
5) Wicked (6)
6) Emilia Perez (1)
7) The Substance (7)
8) I'm Still Here (10)
9) Dune Part Two (9)
10) Nickel Boys (8)
BEST DIRECTION
1) Sean Baker/Anora (3)
2) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist (1)
3) James Mangold/A Complete Unknown (4)
4) Coralie Fargeat/The Substance (5)
5) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez (2)
BEST ACTRESS
1) Demi Moore/The Substance (1)
2) Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here (3)
3) Mikey Madison/Anora (3)
4) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked (5)
5) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez (4)
BEST ACTOR
1) Adrien Brody/The Brutali

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HUB75 – The new Berlinale Festival Center opens for talks, networking and meetings
TALKS. MEETINGS. CONNECTIONS. For the 75th anniversary of the Berlin International Film Festival, a new centerpiece has been built near Potsdamer Platz, right next to the red carpet of the Berlinale Palast: HUB75. This Festival Center is an inviting place for encounters and exchanges. Various events for audiences and film industry professionals will take place here every day. PROGRAMME Feb 14 – 21, 202...
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MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: PREDICTING THE WINNERS PART FOUR
Here's the last set of initial predictions for what will win at the Oscar ceremony on March 2nd. I'll have fresh predictions for Best Picture, Direction and the Acting categories on Thursday. As always, TFF films are in Bold.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1) Wicked
2) Conclave
3) Nosferatu
4) A Complete Unknown
5) Gladiator II
BEST MAKEUP/HAIR
1) The Substance
2) Wicked
3) Emilia Perez
4) A Different Man
5) Nosferatu
BEST SOUND DESIGN
1) A Complete Unknown
2) Wicked
3) Dune Part Two
4) Emilia Perez
5) The Wild Robot
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1) Dune Part Two
2) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
3) Wicked
4) Better Man
5) Alien: Romulus
Comment: Among these four categories, TFF's best shot at a win looks to be Conclave in costumes and even that seems fairly unlikely. Maybe the tightest category of any is Sound. A Complete Unknown, Wicked and Dune Part Two seem to be in dead heat. It'll be interesting to see if that changes over the next couple of weeks when we re-visit these categories.
CRITICS CHOICE AND TFF