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Oscar Night and TFF #51

Rick W / Monday, March 3, 2025 0 253

OSCAR NIGHT AND TFF #51

Here are your results from Oscar #97. TFF #51 films are in Bold.

Best Picture: Anora.

Best Direction: Sean Baker/Anora.

Best Actress: Mikey Madison/Anora

Best Actor: Winner: Adrien Brody/The Brutalist.

Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez.

Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Conclave.

Best Original Screenplay: Anora.

Best International Feature: Winner: I'm Still Here.

Best Documentary Feature: No Other Land.

Best Animated Feature: Flow.

Best Cinematography: The Brutalist.

Best Editing: Anora.

Best Original Score: The Brutalist.

Best Original Song: El Mal/Emilia Perez.

Best Production Design: Wicked.

Best Costume Design: Wicked.

Best Makeup/Hair: The Substance.

Best Sound Design: Dune Part Two.

Best Visual Effects: Dune Part Two.

Best Live Action Short: I Am Not a Robot.

Best Animated Short: In the Shadow of the Cypress.

Best Documentary Short: The Only Girl in the Orchestra.

TYFF #51 films win 10 Oscars.

Anora (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay and Editing.

Emilia Perez (2): Supporting Actress, Song.

Conclave (1): Adapted Screenplay.

A Real Pain (1): Supporting Actor.

No Other Land: Documentary.

The Best Picture Oscar returns to Telluride with Anora. It's the first TFF film to win Best Picture since 2021 and Nomadland.

Anora was #3 on the People's Telluride poll with a 4.44 rating. It was #1 among the Pros at 4.53. Consequently it topped the TFF Composite poll with an 8.97 rating. That was good enough to put Anora in the All-Time Top Ten of the TFF Composite as well the All-time Top Ten of the Professionals.

MTFB goes 16 of 23 for a 69.6% success rate. Missed all three shorts categories but was 80% on feature categories. Among the categories I missed I had five of those seven listed as the possible "upsets".

MTFB Special: Final Final Oscar Predictions

Rick W / Monday, March 3, 2025 0 243

MTFB SPECIAL: FINAL FINAL OSCAR PREDICITONS

Here's what I'm saying will happen tonight in all 23 Academy Awards categories (TTF #51 films in Bold):

Best Picture: Winner: Anora. Possible Upset: Conclave.

Best Direction: Winner: Sean Baker/Anora. Possible Upset: Brady Corbet/The Brutalist

Best Actress: Winner: Demi Moore/The Substance. Possible "Upset": Mikey Madison/Anora

Best Actor: Winner: Adrien Brody/The Brutalist. Possible Upset: Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown.

Best Supporting Actress: Winner: Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez. Possible Upset: Ariana Grande/Wicked or Isabella Rossellini/Conclave.

Best Supporting Actor: Winner: Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain. Possible Upset: Edward Norton/ A Complete Unknown.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Winner: Conclave. Possible Upset: Nickel Boys.

Best Original Screenplay: Winner: Anora. Possible Upset: A Real Pain.

Best International Feature: Winner: I'm Still Here. Possible Upset: Emilia Perez.

Best Documentary Feature: Winner: Porcelain War. Possible Upset: No Other Land.

Best Animated Feature: winner: The Wild Robot. Possible Upset: Flow.

Best Cinematography: Winner: The Brutalist. Possible Upset: Nosferatu.

Best Editing: Conclave. Possible Upset: Anora.

Best Original Score: Winner: The Brutalist. Possible Upset: Conclave.

Best Original Song: Winner: El Mal/Emilia Perez. Possible Upset: The Journey/The Six Triple Eight.

Best Production Design: Winner: Wicked. Possible Upset: The Brutalist.

Best Costume Design: Winner: Wicked. Possible Upset: Nosferatu or A Complete Unknown.

Best Makeup/Hair: Winner: The Substance. Possible Upset: Wicked.

Best Sound Design: Winner: Dune Part Two. Possible Upset: Wicked or A Complete Unknown.

Best Visual Effects: Winner Dune Part Two. Possible Upset: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes.

Best Live Action Short: Winner: A Lien. Possible Upset: Anuja. (But who knows?)

Best Animated Short: Winner: Yuck!. Possible Upset: Wander to Wonder. (But who knows?)

Best Documentary Short: Winner: I Am Ready Warden. Possible Upset: The Only Girl in the Orchestra.

If I'm 100% accurate:

TFF films win eight Oscars:

Anora (3): Best Picture, Direction and Original Screnplay.

Conclave (2): Best Adapted Screenplay and Editing.

Emilia Perez (2): Best Supporting Actress and Song.

A Real Pain (1): Best Supporting Actor.

Other non-TFF films with multiple wins:

The Brutalist (3): Best Actor, Cinematography and Score.

The Substance (2): Best Actress and Makeup/Hair.

Wicked (2): Best Production Design and Costume Design.

Dune Part Two (2): Best Sound Design and Visual Effects.

My prediction success rate over the past several years:

2024: 19/23 82.6%

2023: 18/23 78.3%

2022: 21/23 91.3%

2021: 16/23 69.6%

2020: 19/24 79.2%

2019: 19/24 79.2%

2018: 21/24 87.5%

2017: 15/24 62.5%

2016: 15/24 62.5%

2015: 20/24 83.3%

2014: 22/24 91.7%

My lifetime batting average: 205/260. Success rate: 78.9%. Let's see what happens tonight!!!!! <

MTFB's Almost Final Oscar Winner Predictions / RIP Gene Hackman

Rick W / Sunday, March 2, 2025 0 257

MTFB'S ALMOST FINAL OSCAR WINNER PREDICTIONS

That's right. "Almost Final". I finally decided that I'll put up a "Final Final" on Sunday morning so as to have the freshest data for the nine or so categories that are tight. More on them below. That said, here are your latest MTFB predictions about who/what wins an Oscar on Sunday night in all 23 categories. As always, TFF #51 films are in Bold. A film's previous position is in parentheses to the right of each title.

BEST PICTURE

1) Anora (1)

2) Conclave (2)

3) The Brutalist (3)

4) A Complete Unknown (4)

5) Wicked (5)

6) Emilia Perez (6)

7) I'm Still Here (8)

8) The Substance (7)

9) Dune Part Two (9)

10) Nickel Boys (10)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Sean Baker/Anora (1)

2) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist (2)

3) James Mangold/A Complete Unknown (3)

4) Coralie Fargeat/The Substance (4)

5) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez (5)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Mikey Madison/Anora (3)

2) Demi Moore/The Substance (1)

3) Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here (2)

4) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked (4)

5) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez (5)

BEST ACTOR

1) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist (1)

2) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown (2)

3)

MTFB Oscar Update: Makeup-Hair, Costumes and More / SAG Awards and TFF #51 / Film Independent Spirit Awards and TFF #51 / Misericordia Trailer

Rick W / Sunday, March 2, 2025 0 52

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: MAKEUP/HAIR, COSTUMES AND MORE

We're in the stretch run now. Oscar Night is down to less than week from today. In today's post I update these categories: Makeup/Hair, Costumes, Sound and Visual Effects. I last posted predictions for these categories on Feb. 10th. TFF #51 films are in Bold. Their previous predicted position is indicated to the right in parentheses.

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Substance (1)

2) Wicked (2)

3) Emilia Perez (3)

4) Nosferatu (5)

5) A Different Man (4)

BEST SOUND DESIGN

1) Dune Part Two (3)

2) Wicked (2)

3) A Complete Unknown (1)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) The Wild Robot (5)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Wicked (1)

2) Nosferatu (3)

3) Conclave (2)

4) A Complete Unknown (4)

5) Gladiator II (5)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune Part Two (1)

2) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (2)

3) Wicked (3)

4) Better Man (4)

5) Alien: Romulus (5)

Comment: I have no TFF #51 films to win in any of these four categories. The real battle among these four is Sound Design which appears to be a down to the wire race between Dune 2 and Wicked. I also wouldn't be shocked if A Complete unknown sneaks on Oscar night.

MTFB Oscar Update: Winners Predictions-Cinematography and More / Bonus Update: Best Picture / SAG on Sunday / Trailer and Release for Thank You Very Much / Interviews and Profiles

Rick W / Sunday, March 2, 2025 0 240

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: WINNERS PREDICTIONS: CINEMATOGRAPHY AND MORE

Oscar voting is CLOSED! The ballot deadline was Tuesday evening. Now we wait...

I'm updating five categories today that were last posted on Feb. 6th. As always TFF #51 films are Bold and their previous position on the chart is to the right in parentheses.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Brutalist (1)

2) Nosferatu (3)

3) Dune Part Two (2)

4) Emilia Perez (5)

5) Maria (4)

BEST EDITING

1) Conclave (1)

2) Anora (2)

3) The Brutalist (3)

4) Wicked (5)

5) Emilia Perez (4)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Wicked (1)

2) The Brutalist (2)

3) Nosferatu (5)

4) Dune Part Two (3)

5) Conclave (4)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Brutalist (1)

2) Conclave (2)

3) The Wild Robot (3)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) Wicked (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) El Mal/Emilia Perez (1)

2) The Journey/The Six Triple Eight (2)

3) Mi Camino/Emilia Perez (3)

4) Never Too Late/Never Too Late (5)

5) Like a Bird/Sing Sing (4)

Comment: Currently I have TFF #51 films winning two of these five Oscars with Conclave taking Editing (though if Anora wins here that'll keep Editing in the TFF #51 family) and Emilia Perez taking Original Song. The other "Best Chance" of a pickup is Conclave in Original Score. At the moment I have Conclave winning Adapted Screenplay and Editing. If it does upset The Brutalist for Score then maybe an upset is brewing in favor of Conclave over Anora for Best Picture.

BONUS UPDATE: BEST PICTURE

MTFB Oscar Update: Winners Predicitons: Above the Line / Looking Forward to Cannes / Trailer for The Friend / Interviews and Profiles: The Seed of the Sacred Fig and Nickel Boys

Rick W / Thursday, February 13, 2025 0 277

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: WINNERS PREDICTIONS: ABOVE THE LINE

The difference two weeks can make. Since the last posting of theses six "Above the Line" categories, the Karla Sofia Gascon implosion has done major damage to the Oscar chances of Emilia Perez and the 1-2-3 blitz from last weekend of Anora winning Best Picture from the Critics' Choice as well as the Producers' Guild and the directing trophy from the Directors' Guild has re-shaped the Oscar map. Here's where we are as of this morning. As always TTFF films are Bold and a film/performer's position from the last set of predictions is indicated in parentheses to the right.

BEST PICTURE

1) Anora (4)

2) Conclave (3)

3) A Complete Unknown (5)

4) The Brutalist (2)

5) Wicked (6)

6) Emilia Perez (1)

7) The Substance (7)

8) I'm Still Here (10)

9) Dune Part Two (9)

10) Nickel Boys (8)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Sean Baker/Anora (3)

2) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist (1)

3) James Mangold/A Complete Unknown (4)

4) Coralie Fargeat/The Substance (5)

5) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez (2)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Demi Moore/The Substance (1)

2) Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here (3)

3) Mikey Madison/Anora (3)

4) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked (5)

5) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez (4)

BEST ACTOR

1) Adrien Brody/The Brutali

MTFB Oscar Update: Predicting the Winners Part Four / Critics Choice and TFF / Director's Guild and Producer's Guild

Rick W / Monday, February 10, 2025 0 50

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: PREDICTING THE WINNERS PART FOUR

Here's the last set of initial predictions for what will win at the Oscar ceremony on March 2nd. I'll have fresh predictions for Best Picture, Direction and the Acting categories on Thursday. As always, TFF films are in Bold.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Wicked

2) Conclave

3) Nosferatu

4) A Complete Unknown

5) Gladiator II

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Substance

2) Wicked

3) Emilia Perez

4) A Different Man

5) Nosferatu

BEST SOUND DESIGN

1) A Complete Unknown

2) Wicked

3) Dune Part Two

4) Emilia Perez

5) The Wild Robot

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune Part Two

2) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

3) Wicked

4) Better Man

5) Alien: Romulus

Comment: Among these four categories, TFF's best shot at a win looks to be Conclave in costumes and even that seems fairly unlikely. Maybe the tightest category of any is Sound. A Complete Unknown, Wicked and Dune Part Two seem to be in dead heat. It'll be interesting to see if that changes over the next couple of weeks when we re-visit these categories.

CRITICS CHOICE AND TFF

MTFB Oscar Update: A Look at Tight Races / ICYMI: The Producers Guild and TFF

Rick W / Wednesday, January 22, 2025 0 293

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: A LOOK AT TIGHT RACES

In today's update I'm spotlighting the instances in major categories that are tight.

Best Picture: It feels like seven films are safely locked: Conclave, Anora, Emilia Perez, The Brutalist, Wicked, A Complete Unknown and Dune Part Two. The last three slots look like a fight between The Substance, A Real Pain, Nickel Boys and Sing Sing. Also, All We Imagine as Light could sneak in with massive support from non-domestic members of the Academy.

I'm actually thinking that The Substance is nearly locked. I won't be particularly surprised at any arrangement of Real Pain, Nickel Boys or Sing Sing in that last two slots. I would be surprised if All We Imagine makes the list of ten. I'd really like to see September 5 make it. We'll see when I post the MTFB FINAL NOMINATION PREDICTIONS IN A SPECIAL POST ON WEDNESDAY.

Best Direction: Locks: Corbet, Baker, Bergen and Audiard. Last spot: Mangold, Villenueve, Fargeat, Ross or Kapadia.

Best Actress: Locks: Moore, Erivo, Madison and Gascon. Last Spot: Torres, Jean-Baptiste, Jolie or Kidman. Shocker: Winslet.

Best Actor: Locks: Fiennes, Brody, Chalamet. Last two spots: Domingo, Stan (Apprentice), Craig, Grant. Shocker: Eisenberg.

Best Supporting Actress: Locks: Locks: Saldana, Grande-Butera, Rossellini. Last two spots: Barbaro, Curtis, Jones, Gomez, Qualley or Deadwyler. The chicken bones are tending toward Curtis to grab one of these two remaining spots. Shocker: Fanning.

Best Supporting Actor: Locks: Culkin, Norton, Borisov and Pearce. Last spot: Strong, Washington, Maclin or Tucci. Shocker: Magaro.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Locks: Conclave, Emilia Perez, A Complete Unknown. Last two spots: Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, Dune Part Two, Wicked, Inside Out 2. Shocker: Hit Man .

Best Original Screenplay: Locks: Anora, The Brutalist and A Real Pain. Last two spots: The Substance, September 5, All We Imagine as Light or Hard Truths. Shockers: Challengers or The Seed of the Sacred Fig.

Best Animated Feature: Locks: The Wild Robot, Flow and Inside Out 2. Last two spots: Memoir of a Snail, Wallace and Gromet: Vengeance Most Fowl, Moana 2, Piece by Piece. Shocker: Chicken for Linda.

Best International Film: Locks: Emilia Perez, The Seed of the Sacred Fig and I'm Still Here. Last two spots: Vermiglio, The Girl with the Needle, Flow, Kneecap or Dahomey. Shocker:

Best Documentary Feature: Locks: (probably): No Other Land, Sugar cane and Daughters. Last two spots: Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat, Dahomey, Will & Harper, The Remarkable Life of Ibelin or Black Box. Shocker: Union.

ICYMI: THE PRODUCERS GUILD AND TFF

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BAFTA and TFF #51 / MTFB Oscar Update-It's in Flux-Updating the Big Eight / Interviews and Profiles

Rick W / Friday, January 17, 2025 0 312

BAFTA AND TFF #51

First came the longlists and now we have the actual nominees from the British Academy of Film and Televisions Arts (BAFTA). The Brits have nominated 14 films that played at TFF #51 for a total of 45 nominations. Conclave and Emilia Perez had the most noms with a dozen and 11 respectively. Here's the complete rundown of BAFTA nominations and TFF films:

Conclave (12): Best Film, Outstanding British Film, Direction, Actor (Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Rossellini), Casting, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Score and Costumes.

Emilia Perez (11): Best Film, Best Film Not in the English Language, Direction, Actress (Gascon), Supporting Actress (Saldana), Supporting Actress (Gomez), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Score and Makeup/Hair.

Anora (7): Best Film, Direction, Actress (Madison), Supporting Actor (Borisov), Original Screenplay, Casting and Editing.

The Apprentice (3): Best Actor (Stan), Supporting Actor (Strong) and Casting.

A Real Pain (2): Best Supporting Actor (Culkin) and Original Screenplay.

The Outrun (2): Outstanding British Film and Best Actress (Ronan).

All other films have a single nomination as follows:

Nickel Boys: Best Adapted Screenplay.

No Other Land: Best Documentary.

Will & Harper: Best Documentary.

The Seed of the Sacred Fig: Best Film Not in the English Language.

All We Imagine as Light: Best Film Not in the English Language.

Bird: Outstanding British Film.

Santosh: Outstanding Debut.

Better Man: Best Special Visual Effects.

The BAFTA Awards will be handed out on Feb. 16th.

The complete set of all BAFTA nominations is linked here.

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE-IT'S IN FLUX

It's all pretty messy now. Oscar nominations are now set to be announced on Jan. 23rd. Today I'm updating the nomination predictions for the Big Eight categories: Picture, Direction, all four acting categories and the two screenplay categories. My plan at the moment is to focus on updating close races in Monday's post and do a Special Final Oscar Nom post on Wednesday the 22

MTFB Oscar Update: Shorts / The Precursors' Tale / Oscar Voters: Hear My Plea(s) Please / Interviews and Profiles

Rick W / Wednesday, January 15, 2025 0 304

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SHORTS

For the first time I'm taking a stab at the most difficult Oscar categories to predict both in terms of nominations and ultimate winners. These may or may not change prior to my final Oscar nomination predictions on Jan. 16th. This year of the short listed shorts TFF had two films make those lists: A Swim Lesson in Documentary Shorts and Beautiful Men in Animated Shorts.

Here's where I'm guessing the nominations will land on Jan. 19th:

ANIMATED SHORTS

1) Me

2) Maybe Elephants

3) Bottle George

4) Magic Candles

5)Wander to Wonder

Others: In the Shadow of the Cypress, The 21 and Yuck.

DOCUMENTARY SHORTS

1) Makayla's Voice: A Letter to the World

2) The Only Girl in the Orchestra

3) A Swim Lesson

4) Incident

5) Once Upon a Time in Ukraine

Others: The Quilters, Death by Numbers and Instruments of a Beating Heart.

LIVE ACTION SHORTS

1) The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

2) Dovecote

3) An Orange from Jaffa

4) Room Taken

5) The Masterpiece

Others: Crust, I Am Not a Robot and Clodagh.

THE PERCURSORS' TALE

A bunch of us that try to tell you what's going to happen when Oscar nominations and winners are announced take a look at various "precursor awards". It's a way to try to divine what the film industry is thinking as we move closer to the nomination reveal and then the Oscar ceremony itself.

And there are, if you choose to look at them, a ton of precursors. My buddy Mark Johnson of The Awards Alchemist (housed at Erik Anderson's Awards Watch) annually puts together what he refers to as the Big Board of Precursors You can find its current status here. Mark's Awards Alchemist predictions are linked here.

Next Best Picture's Matt Neglia does a super